AGP Executive Report

Markets & geopolitics: Asia stocks wobbled as investors digested Trump’s Iran comments and a fresh bout of Middle East jitters, keeping oil and bond moves in focus. Energy pressure: The Strait of Hormuz disruption risk is still reshaping costs across Southeast Asia, while Russia’s LNG pivot to Asia is already hitting revenues as shipping gets pricier. Sino-US framing: China is pushing a “constructive strategic stability” roadmap after the Xi–Trump summit, aiming to calm risk even as trade and the Iran war remain unresolved. Philippines domestic squeeze: President Marcos ordered a 10% cut to government expenses, citing the Iran war’s economic hit. ASEAN climate reality: Bangkok is forecast to become the hottest major SE Asian city by 2050, with extreme-heat days set to surge. Business & tech: Dell is bringing OpenAI’s Codex into on-prem enterprise setups, while Standard Chartered targets deep headcount cuts and wealth expansion. Health & society: Hong Kong approved a Phase 2 trial for an EGCg-based HPV therapy, and South Asia’s intimate partner violence remains alarmingly high.

Diplomacy to cool West Asia tensions: Iran’s FM Abbas Araghchi spoke by phone with Türkiye’s Hakan Fidan, discussing “ongoing diplomatic developments” as Washington pressures Iran and Strait of Hormuz restrictions remain a flashpoint. Markets under oil-and-rate pressure: Asia markets mostly closed lower as Iran risk lifted crude and bond yields, with India’s rupee sliding to a record low near 96.39 per dollar. India’s cost shock spreads: India’s fertiliser subsidy bill is set to rise by about Rs 15,000 crore in the April–June quarter, blamed on import costs tied to the West Asia crisis. Trade corridor boost: Singapore’s SM Lee visited China’s Guangxi as the Pinglu Canal opens in September, cutting shipping distance to Southeast Asia by up to 740km. Capital raising: Bain Capital announced the final close of Asia Fund VI at $10.5b, exceeding its $7b target. Regional spotlight: Amnesty says only Singapore and Vietnam still carry out executions in Southeast Asia, with Singapore nearly doubling executions in 2025. Culture & business: Qatar Airways and Philippine Airlines expand codeshare and loyalty links from June 1.

West Asia Shock Hits Markets: Asian shares slipped and bond yields jumped as fresh Gulf drone attacks pushed oil higher, with the Strait of Hormuz still moving only a trickle of shipping and fears growing that the disruption could become structural. India Currency Under Pressure: The rupee slid past 96 per dollar again, with traders watching for a move toward 100 while bonds are expected to keep falling on growth-inflation worries tied to the Iran war. Energy Logistics Watch: An LPG tanker carrying 20,000 tonnes safely reached Gujarat after crossing the Strait, underscoring how critical rerouting and insurance costs are becoming. Policy Diplomacy: BRICS foreign ministers in New Delhi issued a chair’s statement calling for dialogue and safe maritime commerce, but divisions over West Asia prevented a joint push. APAC Business Moves: Asana named Jo Gaines GM for APAC; Sompo Asia Pacific hired Megan Yeung as senior casualty underwriter for Hong Kong/Macau/Taiwan; and Jane Street doubled its Singapore capacity as it ramps up across Asia.

West Asia Energy Shock: A 20,000-tonne LPG tanker safely docked at India’s Kandla port after crossing the Strait of Hormuz, as New Delhi again warned that attacks on commercial shipping and freedom of navigation are “unacceptable.” Trade & Industry: India’s gems and jewellery exports fell 9% in April to $2.2bn, with West Asia disruptions and uncertainty over US tariffs blamed for the drop. Space & Security: ICEYE will open its first India satellite production facility within 6–12 months, aiming to make small SAR satellites for defence, surveillance and environmental monitoring—its Asia-Pacific manufacturing hub. APEC Diplomacy: APEC economies met in Shanghai to push trade and investment priorities, including digital trade and reducing cross-border barriers, while a women-and-economy forum focused on entrepreneurship and digital transformation. Regional Resilience: Kazakhstan launched its first rain-making project to boost reservoir filling and water supply for agriculture. Business & Finance: Prudential agreed to buy a 75% stake in Bharti Life Insurance for Rs 3,500 crore, reshaping India’s life insurance JV landscape.

Urban Diplomacy: Malaysia’s Housing and Local Government Minister Nga Kor Ming is in Baku to push UN-Habitat cooperation on urban liveability, digital urbanisation and Voluntary Local Reviews, including plans for a Malaysia-based “Global Centre of Excellence” and a UN-Habitat digital lab for AI in local governance. Cybercrime Shift: Sri Lanka is seeing a spike in arrests of foreign scam suspects, as networks pushed out of Cambodia and Myanmar reportedly relocate to Sri Lanka for easier visas and strong internet. Energy & Shipping Shock: India and the Netherlands discussed the Strait of Hormuz closure and the need to end the West Asia conflict, while experts warn drone warfare is worsening civilian harm in Sudan. Trade & Money: India tightened rules on some silver bar imports amid rupee pressure and West Asia-linked uncertainty. Tech & Capital: Indonesia is moving to turn Bali’s KEK Kura Kura SEZ into an international financial hub, pitching digital and sustainable finance.

Markets & Inflation Shock: Global equities slid as bond yields jumped on renewed Middle East oil-supply worries and Japan’s inflation warning, snapping an AI-led rally and hitting tech-heavy sentiment across Asia. West Asia Energy Fallout: India’s retail inflation inched up to 3.48% in April, while analysts flag tighter financial conditions and fuel-linked risks; India also resumed Iranian crude imports after a seven-year gap, underscoring how Hormuz disruptions are reshaping energy flows. Policy Moves: India revised petroleum export taxes—cutting diesel and ATF duties while adding a Rs 3/litre petrol export levy—aimed at protecting domestic supply. Press Freedom: Bangladesh faces fresh international pressure as CPJ urges authorities to release journalists Farzana Rupa and Mozammel Babu, arrested in an ICT case tied to the 2013 Shapla Chattar crackdown. Sports: Philippines’ Karate One-Youth League medal hopes ended on Day 3 as Ysabella Varias and Carl Caruana lost their bronze bouts in Manila. Wildlife & Culture: China reintroduced 900+ wild horses to the steppes, while Emirates rolled out Starlink high-speed Wi‑Fi on its first A380.

West Asia Energy Shock on the Ground: In Mumbai, fuel hikes after the Strait of Hormuz disruption are already feeding into higher transport costs and even vegetable prices, with CNG and petrol/diesel increases sparking calls for fare rises and more expensive trucking. India-UAE Energy Security: India and the UAE moved to deepen energy ties, including expanding UAE storage in India’s strategic reserves—aimed at buffering future supply shocks. BRICS Split Over West Asia: BRICS foreign ministers in New Delhi failed to agree on a joint declaration, with Iran and the UAE at odds; India still pushed for broader global governance reforms in a chair’s statement. Diplomacy Push: Iran’s FM told BRICS that India can play a “greater role” in de-escalation, while PM Modi reiterated India’s willingness to support peace. Markets Jolt: Global stocks slid as bond yields surged and inflation fears returned, while Tech/Connectivity: Hong Kong marked a major milestone as the Asia Link submarine cable landed.

Digital Seoul Upgrade: Naver is turning all of Seoul into a swipeable 3D “Flying View” digital twin, expanding its earlier tourist-only rollout and aiming to pull both locals and foreign visitors deeper into Naver Map. West Asia Diplomacy Split at BRICS: BRICS foreign ministers in New Delhi failed to agree on a joint statement over the Iran war; India issued a chair’s statement citing “differing views,” while BRICS also condemned unilateral sanctions. US-China Truce, Still No Joint Line: Trump and Xi met in Beijing with talk focused on Iran, Taiwan and trade, including calls to keep the Strait of Hormuz open—but no joint statement. Markets Hit by Oil and FX Pressure: India’s rupee slid past 96 per US dollar for the first time as crude prices rose on West Asia tensions; exports still grew 14% in April to $43.6bn. Science Spotlight: Thailand announced a new giant dinosaur species, Nagatitan, estimated at 27 meters long and 27 tons.

Energy Shock in India: Petrol and diesel prices were hiked again—by ₹3 across variants—while Delhi CNG jumped by ₹2 per kg as the Strait of Hormuz blockade and West Asia war keep cranking up crude costs. Inflation Pressure: Wholesale inflation surged to a 42-month high of 8.3% in April, with fuel and power inflation jumping sharply. Policy Pushback: India’s RBI and government messaging is turning into “save fuel, cut spending” mode as banks and NBFCs brace for West Asia spillovers. Trade Diplomacy: Korea’s trade minister kicked off Korea–Mexico FTA push, proposing a strategic dialogue and working group to tackle tariff and quota frictions. APEC Focus: APEC met in Shanghai on expanding women’s participation in the digital economy and green transition. US–China Talks: Trump and Xi head into the final day of talks in Beijing, with Taiwan tensions still the big risk point.

Palaeontology Breakthrough: Thailand researchers have unearthed the Southeast Asia’s largest dinosaur, Nagatitan chaiyaphumensis, a 27-metre sauropod estimated at 25–28 tonnes, found in Chaiyaphum after years of digging. Sports & Inclusion: Malaysia’s Youth and Sports Ministry has approved Penang to host the Asia Pacific Deaf Games 2026 (Oct 3–10), a boost for deaf athletes across the region. Football Business: Saudi’s PIF has been named an Official Tournament Supporter for FIFA World Cup 2026 in North America and Asia, tying its companies and entertainment projects to fan engagement. Markets Under Pressure: The Indian rupee slid to an all-time low of ₹95.96 per dollar as oil-price risks, foreign outflows, and a stronger US dollar bite. Tech & Connectivity: Asia Link Cable has landed in Hong Kong, a 6,200km system linking China and Singapore with branches across Southeast Asia, aiming for full commercial operation later this year. Geopolitics & Trade: APEC food-safety regulators met in Shanghai to push harmonised standards and digital verification to cut barriers and keep trade moving.

US–China Summit: Trump and Xi meet in Beijing for a high-stakes, multi-day push on trade, AI and Iran-linked shipping, with Taiwan and Strait of Hormuz tensions looming over talks. FX & Energy Shock: Asia’s reserves are sliding as oil prices bite—Philippines down 8.1%, India 5.2%, Indonesia 3.8%—while the rupee hits a record low near 95.80. Markets Watch: Asia stocks lift on AI optimism even as investors stay glued to summit headlines and West Asia risk. Shipping Under Strain: India’s LPG tanker MV Sunshine crosses Hormuz with Indian Navy support as Gulf route worries persist. Policy Pressure: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra warns fuel-price hikes may be needed if the West Asia crisis drags on. Business & Tech: Citi plans ~10% more Asia-Pacific prime brokerage staff; Payoneer posts strong Q1 growth; Coremont and Polymer Capital sign a partnership. Health & Society: A study in India links better cognition, nutrition and mobility to lower death risk in older adults. Consumer Tech: Motorola’s Moto Tag 2 is now purchasable in select markets with long battery life.

West Asia shock hits India’s fuel math: RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra warned petrol and diesel prices may rise if the Middle East conflict drags on, as crude costs feed into inflation and the central bank weighs its June 5 call. Austerity spreads from the top: Prime Minister Modi cut his convoy size and urged fuel-saving habits; several BJP chief ministers followed with similar vehicle reductions and public transport pushes. Aviation fallout stays severe: ACI says Gulf conflict disruption left nine Middle East airports operating at just 53% of schedules, with up to $1bn in revenue losses and 27m passengers and 620,000 tonnes of cargo disrupted in March–April. Cyber + AI security push: ExtraHop’s “Agentic Shift” tour lands in Singapore (May 20) and then Kuala Lumpur, Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra, focusing on safe AI agent deployment and AI-driven threats. Data centers go cleaner: Bridge Data Centres and EcoCeres completed an HVO-powered backup fuel pilot across APAC campuses. Indonesia court case: Prosecutors sought an 18-year sentence for Gojek co-founder Nadiem Makarim in a corruption case tied to school Chromebook procurement. Trade/energy backdrop: OPEC estimates Russia and Central Asia oil exports rose 17% in March to 6.6m bpd.

West Asia Shock Hits Asia Markets: Asian stocks slid again as investors weighed hotter-than-expected US inflation and a Middle East ceasefire that still looks fragile, while crude prices stayed elevated and risk appetite stayed cautious. India Austerity Goes Local: Prime Minister Modi’s fuel-saving push is spreading fast—UP ministers and union officials are cutting escort and pilot vehicles, using simpler travel, and urging work-from-home to protect foreign exchange. Energy Security Pressure: India’s petroleum minister said the country has 60 days of crude, 60 days of LNG and 45 days of LPG, even as oil firms face heavy losses; elsewhere, Southeast Asia is also looking beyond oil and gas. Tech & Policy: Singapore ranked 47th on business complexity as compliance burdens persist, while governments across Asia Pacific are ramping “Sovereign AI” from talk to structured rollout. Clean Power for Data Centres: Bridge Data Centres completed a pilot using waste-based HVO biofuel for backup power, cutting emissions sharply. Japan Security Alarm: Japan’s military shift drew fresh regional backlash after missile drills involving Japan’s formal participation.

West Asia Pressure on Asia’s Economy: India’s PM Narendra Modi renewed his austerity push, urging fuel restraint, work-from-home and postponing gold and foreign travel as crude prices and FX risks bite; markets slid again with Sensex and Nifty falling sharply. Diplomacy and Maritime Tensions: The US weighs renewed military action against Iran as talks stall, while Singapore’s FM Vivian Balakrishnan told Iran that the Strait of Hormuz must stay open for transit under UNCLOS. Regional Border Friction: Thailand’s military is building a concrete border fence with Cambodia near Pong Nam Ron, a move critics say shifts from cooperation to unilateral enforcement. China Trade Momentum: China’s passenger and NEV exports kept growing in Q1, with destinations diversifying across Russia, Brazil and Europe. Business Moves Across APAC: Konvy raised $22m for Southeast Asia expansion; ASEA Global expanded into China; Air India Express earned a 4-Star Skytrax rating. Science and Culture: Researchers recreated Neolithic plaster burials to test preservation methods, while Singapore’s Mandai Rainforest Wild Asia and House of Tan Yeok Nee made TIME’s World’s Greatest Places list.

West Asia Shock: Iran-US talks hit another deadlock, with Trump weighing renewed military action as ceasefire hopes fade and Hormuz-linked oil risk keeps markets jittery. India Energy Watch: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s IGoM says India has 60 days of crude, 60 days of gas and 45 days of LPG, but Modi keeps repeating the “save fuel, WFH, cut foreign trips, defer gold” push to protect forex. Fuel Prices: India’s retail petrol/diesel rates are holding steady despite global volatility, while jet-fuel supply crunches threaten summer travel plans across Asia and Europe. Political Fallout: Modi’s “seven appeals” spark a fresh row—BJP calls it economic self-defence; Opposition calls it failure—while jewellers in Lucknow protest the gold deferment. Regional Business: Kazakhstan and Indonesia trade hit $244.7m, and Brazil is eyeing organic soybean cultivation in Central Asia. Tech/Policy: South Korea delays its Digital Asset Basic Act until after June elections. Sports/Entertainment: The Weeknd confirms final Asia stadium dates; in Manila, Barangay Ginebra’s TNT import Bol Bol powers a playoff momentum boost.

Energy Security Push: ASEAN leaders urged faster ratification of APSA 2.0 and quicker rollout of the ASEAN Power Grid as West Asia conflict threatens fuel and electricity stability. India’s Crisis Management: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh chaired the 5th Informal Group of Ministers meeting, with the government saying India has 60 days of crude oil, 60 days of natural gas and 45 days of LPG rolling stock—no fuel rationing planned. Markets Hit by Oil + Gold Appeal: Sensex slid over 1,300 points and the rupee hit a record low as crude rebounded; PM Modi’s call to avoid gold purchases for a year and cut foreign travel rattled jewellery shares, triggering protests from Lucknow traders. Corporate Moves: RHB Bank said Bank Negara Malaysia has no objection to talks to integrate RHB Insurance with Tokio Marine, while SIA Engineering lifted H2 earnings and proposed a higher dividend. Rights Under Pressure: Central Asia groups warned of escalating digital repression—harassment, shutdowns, AI surveillance and prosecutions—to shrink civic space.